Tuesday 30 June 2015

If you think Greece is the villain you've not been watching very closely


Greece joined the EU in 1981 and joined the Euro in 2001 when it came in. It didn't ever meet the Maastricht criteria for monetary union but heck it was another member so the EU bent the rules a little to encourage another supporter. As it did for Spain, Italy, Portugal, Eire. Even France and Germany itself have sometimes fallen out of the strict criteria for EU membership but hell, they're 'good blokes' so let's not kick up too much of a fuss.

In 2008 Greece, along with everybody else associated with the Euro and the Dollar and the Pound found itself in difficulty. The EU printed some cash and bailed Greece, along with everyone else out. And the EU called for reform in Greece, austerity, the collection of taxes, reform of the pension system that saw most Greeks retiring at age 51 on generous terms.

Greece not unpredictably said thanks and pissed this money up the wall. It's what they do. And who is to say they're wrong? They have a lifestyle that most of us would envy but that doesn't mean we would want to pay for someone else to enjoy it. They defaulted. As Germany knew they would. Banks were exposed to the debt and an EU crisis loomed. Another in a long line of EU crises.

So Germany (the EU) bailed them out but the money didn't actually get to Greece. It was, in theory, 'paid' to Greece but it was actually used to pay back the European (German mainly) banks who were exposed to the Greek debt and default. So Greece didn't actually get the money but it's liabilities in terms of repayments to the German banks were met.

But those cleared liabilities were not about clearing the debt, they were about paying off the interest they owed to the banks. So Greece still owed the original capital that had been loaned to them but it now had added to that amount the money needed to repay the interest. So let's say for the want of accurate figures that Greece had been given £10 billion and owed £5 billion in interest. £5 billion was then 'generously' paid to Greece but went instead directly to the banks who were owed the interest and Greece ended up with £15 billion of debt when it couldn't service the original £10 billion anyway.

That is effectively what happened except that the figures were obviously much bigger than those in my illustration. Today Greece owes the EU (IMF, ECB etc) £352.7 billion.

It has not a snowflake's chance in hell of repaying this. Not just now or over a schedule of payments, but ever.

And why did Germany (sorry the EU) allow this to happen? It knew about the Greek economy the tax and retirement ages etc.It knew full well that many Greeks work a four hour day with a two-hour lunch included in that.

It's called Usury. Google it. And how ironic is it that Germany of all countries should make use of it after the last unpleasantness.

It was all done with open eyes and the knowledge that Greece would succumb. It was about securing control and dependency.

The same thing has happened, by the way, in Spain, Italy, Portugal and Eire - it's just that those countries are a bit more grown up and have strived to meet their commitments. Even though this has caused great suffering to their people. It is exactly the same thing but Greece has been the weak link and is now not willing to play Germany's game. Not willing and certainly not able to do so.

Greece is certainly not blameless. It has not reformed its economy and has not tightened its belt in order to be more responsible.

But that was an impossible undertaking. It was never going to happen. And the same tactic employed in Italy, Spain, Portugal and Eire - i.e. a drive to make those countries dependent and compliant, is still playing out. They have made a better fist of it than Greece so far, but they are still mired in debt to the EU and their people are still suffering as a consequence.

But now, because these countries (Italy, Spain, Portugal and Eire) have suffered massively in order to remain afloat in this EU usury programme, they are understandably massively against Greece being exempt from it's commitments - (why should we and our people have suffered if you're just going to let Greece off?) - that the real problem arises.

Even if Greece has been duped into having this massive debt, why should these other countries have suffered - and boy have they suffered - only to see Greece being let off it's financial commitments?

'We've suffered why aren't they being made to suffer too?'

And were I in their shoes I'd have exactly the same reaction.

But the thing is this: Italy, Spain Portugal and Eire have undoubtedly suffered whilst one could argue that Greece has not suffered to the same extent. It still has a basket-case economy and over 50% youth unemployment and it was already a less robust economy than the others when we started this so let's stick with this principle for a moment.

The fact is that Italy, Spain, Portugal and Eire are by no means out of the woods yet. They are all still mired in debt and have probably decades of suffering to go through before they come out at the other end of this project. Even if it succeeds which is not a certainty by any means. They just want - and I completely understand this - Greece to have to suffer as much as they are in order to 'enjoy' their status as part of the club.

It's about human instinct and fairness. I understand that as do we all.

But what if Greece defaulting would cause an end to this usury project? What if Greece by defaulting would bring the whole stinking edifice down and also free Italy, Spain, Portugal and Eire from the tyranny of the EU? Wiping their debts and enabling them to rebalance their economies and to look forward with some degree of hope about the future?

Would they then want Greece to suffer like they have done or would they welcome the chance for a brighter future? In those terms it would seem to be a no brainer, but I'm not sure we're at that stage yet. Some countries would rather 'stay in' and make sure that others suffer as they have, instead of seeing the bigger picture. We'll see in the coming months.

The bottom line from my viewpoint is that if Greece manages to bring the EU down and to make the Euro just an aspiration, a 'peg' instead of a real and credible currency it'll be a great thing. The financial speculators will eat it up and quite rightly. And if that happens the EU is toast. And real European countries and people will be able once again to live, prosper and enjoy hope and aspiration. The EU has been killing this for years and it's time we took back control from these unelected twats and were able to get on with our lives.

A Greek default which brings down the Euro could be the best thing that has happened to Italy, Spain, Portugal and Eire for many years. We should hope and help to make it happen. And as far as the UK is concerned, that means voting for us to leave the EU and to kill it off as soon as we can. Because if we leave it will surely kill off this ridiculous project.

Thanks for reading.











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