It seems the main plank of the 'Remainian's' argument for us staying in the EU is that #Brexit would be a leap in the dark - a leap into the unknown, fraught with danger, deprivation, job losses, the creation of an economic wasteland in the UK. Plague and pestilence abounding.
It also seems that our government - the people who claim to be best able to take the UK forward to prosperity and success - believes itself to be powerless to deliver any kind of positive outcome from our departure, such would be the negative impact of Brexit on all of us.
This is a strange claim in many ways given that we have prospered - indeed, along with Germany we are the only prosperous and successful economy in the EU - from our position on the periphery of the EU project and with no thanks to our membership.
Our trade with the Eurozone (EZ) countries is diminishing - it is now around 44%, down from more than 75% in 2003 - whilst our trade with the rest of an increasingly globalised world is flourishing. We are also the EZ's biggest customer on the planet so the notion that they would impose punitive trade barriers on us is absolutely laughable. They simply cannot afford to do so without decimating their own economies which are already teetering on the brink of going back into recession.
One could very easily argue that staying in the EU is just as much of a leap in the dark as leaving - given that the changes which have been made and adopted without our having the chance to approve them since our last referendum in 1975, have been way beyond anything we originally signed up to (or were informed about at any rate).
And given that the EU regularly comes up with new policies and directives and presents us with new bills (for payment) seemingly out of the blue (£1.7 billion in October last year because our economy was doing relatively well which Dave rejected loudly and then paid quietly), how can we be sure about what will happen in the future if we stay in?
But actually it's much, much worse than that. Because we do know what will happen if we stay in. It is not a leap in the dark, it is a leap into an ever closer union, a leap into democratic servitude, a leap into a position where we have almost no control over our laws or democratic influence or control. And it will, as night follows day, mean that if we stay in, we will have to join the Euro single currency and lose the pound.
There is no other possible outcome. If we want to stay in the club we will have to adopt the Euro by 2025 at the latest. There is no other option and no other outcome if the EU continues with its stated policy of ever closer union and its desire to complete the integration of Europe into a single state.
If you doubt this, read the 'Five Presidents' Report - Completing Europe's Economic and Monetary Union', which was published in 2014 and is now the 'bible' for the EU. It is explicit in setting out these outcomes and it brooks no exceptions. It effectively means that our so-called legally binding opt-out from closer union is not worth the paper it's written on.
Not surprisingly this is not being mentioned by the Remain camp. But it is entirely true. You can read the report here.
So 'Remaining' is not a leap in the dark - i.e. into the unknown - it is instead a leap into a future that we're not even being told about and which even Dave and his cronies say is not what we want or in the interests of the UK. How does that sound to you?
So, how much of a leap in the dark is Brexit? It seems to me that the choice is between giving away our democratic, sovereign powers to choose and control our own destiny, and going it alone in terms of governance in a way where we decide on our future against a backdrop of those choices being made in the interests of the UK and everyone who lives here rather than unelected, unaccountable Eurocrats in Brussels and Strasbourg.
The EU has turned most of its member states in economic basket cases and yet we're told that we must stay in for our own prosperity? That simply does not stack up in factual terms. And 'prosperity' means trade: The EU is of diminishing importance to UK trade but Brexit would not have any negative impact on our ability to trade with Europe. The EU cannot impose punitive tariffs on its biggest customer without decimating its own economy. Will we have to meet EU regulations and standards in order to trade with the EZ? Erm yes, just as we do now and just as we have to do (meet local standards and regulations) when we trade with China or the US or India or anywhere else for that matter. But we don't have to pay them to be a member of their club or accept them imposing laws upon us for the privilege.
Will it take ten years to negotiate our way out of the morass that is the EU machine? Possibly as far as some minor and frankly meaningless issues like toasters and vacuum cleaners are concerned - but not if we have some proper leadership from our own government. As far as trade deals are concerned the withdrawal will be sorted out in a matter of a few weeks. Why? Because the EU cannot afford a hiatus in trade.
If we had a leader with a spine who said: 'We're leaving; we'll continue to trade as before without penalty unless you impose tariffs; then we'll respond in kind. And if we haven't got a legally binding trade deal in place by Christmas 2016, we'll impose tariffs unilaterally on German Cars and French wine, just to see if that might focus your attention. In that scenario the EU would agree to whatever we wanted, and well within that time frame.
So is Brexit a 'leap in the dark'? I'd say that no it is not. Securing control of our own destiny is not a leap into the unknown in most senses of the term. On the other hand, one could argue that life is a leap in the dark. Whether we remain in the EU or vote to leave. And how do we Brits do when it comes to making the best of change, adapting to it and making the most of new challenges and opportunities? Particularly from where we are now, a position of strength.
We have strong relationships with China, India, Canada, Australia, the USA, many parts of Africa, even Russia. And they all want to trade with us ('us' not 'us together with Romania or Hungary or even France. but 'us') because we are not corrupt, we are honest, legally based, financially sound, morally and politically strong and a real global player with this hemisphere's leading financial centre in our capital city.
The question then arises as to who you want to embark on this leap with? The EU which is hell-bent on the political take-over of Europe and whose representatives constantly sneer at, bully and threaten us in the UK even though we are the second biggest net contributor to their funding (which frankly is fucking outrageous); or your fellow Brits with whom you live, vote and share values beliefs, ambitions and goals. And who are doing quite well outside this political mess being created by the EU thanks.
Finally I'm puzzled by this 'leap in the dark' mantra from the Remainians. No mention of the benefits of staying in the EU - perhaps they're struggling to find any? I'm certain they are.
Essentially their message is: it'll be difficult to get out so let's not bother. It's like saying to the abused wife, it'll be difficult for you to leave, so you'd better stay here and continue to be abused.
What happened to principles in public life? What happened to putting the interests of Britain first in all this?
Dave and his cronies are now talking about our being better off, safer and stronger in a 'reformed EU'. But there has been no reform. Not a single degree of reform to the EU. There has been a negligible reform of our relationship with the the EU, but why is Dave being allowed to get away with talking about a 'Reformed EU' when that is simply, factually incorrect?
And today we have seen the ludicrous situation wherein we have a British Prime Minister supporting, sharing a stage with, a French Prime Minister who is threatening the British people. How fucking loopy is that? The term, so I'm told, is 'quizling'. And it's not a compliment.
Life is a leap in the dark. The question is do you want to take that leap with people who don't give a shit about you and have almost certainly never heard of the place where you live, much less understand your issues or concerns, or do you want to take that leap with your own people, your own fellow citizens, whose future is tied in to your own?
It's your call on June 23rd. Choose wisely.
Thanks for reading.
Thursday 3 March 2016
Wednesday 2 March 2016
Ten years to unravel our EU exit? Bollocks
Here's the scenario: June 24th 2016. The Great British public has just voted overwhelmingly to leave the EU. That is a final decision and it now has to be acted upon by the UK government (and Civil Service) as well as the EU itself.
There are clearly many things that will now need to be sorted out - UK border controls will need to be put back in place - this will really mean changing the designation of the queues at our ports and ending the assumption that EU passport-holders will sail through, not a lot more. This will take a couple of days and the changing of a few signs.
Clearly there will be issues of varying priority, complexity and urgency and these will take their own course, but this will be against a backdrop of a focused and clear directive that they must be sorted out to the satisfaction of both sides and that if this is not the case, the UK reserves the right to simply walk away from the negotiations and impose its own sovereign solution. And, now we are outside the EU and we are no longer beholden to our European 'friends', it is not incumbent upon us to help them, and they cannot insist we do things against our own will or interests.
It is also, now, within our gift to impose time limits beyond which we simply revert to our preferred default position. Resolving the many problems caused to the EU by our departure is their problem not ours and whilst we will, in a spirit of cooperation and as a friendly neighbour, try to help, we will not be subject to any kind of control from the EU. It is through our goodwill not our duty that we will help them - if it is in our interests to do so.
Trade is arguably the most urgent issue: Like a night's unoccupied hotel bedroom, you cannot get back that 'product' to sell the next day and this will be seen as the case as far as UK-EU trade is concerned. As far as the EU is concerned, the UK is its biggest customer in the world, the trade deficit in favour of the EU for 2015 was £89 billion - business and industry in the EU simply cannot afford for this trade to dry up whatever happens to the political machinery of the EU - a stoppage in trade, however brief, for the EU whose economy is already teetering on the brink of recession, could be disastrous.
By the same token, the UK will also be keen to establish a positive trade arrangement with the EU as quickly as possible after the vote on June 23rd.
And neither side will want to impose tariffs or any kind of barriers to trade upon the other because that would damage the relationship that is in the interestes of both sides - but is significantly more vital to the EU than it is to the UK.
If you think, therefore, that the EU will impose punitive trade sanctions against the UK in the event of a vote for Brexit, you are, quite simply - and this is a technical economic term - a fucking idiot.
Here's the best analogy I can come up with at the moment: Your biggest customer has decided to move out of the office building in which you both currently operate. This customer has found a better (cheaper, more convenient) place in which to base itself but it still wants to trade with you. Remember this is your biggest customer in the world and you make far more money by trading with this customer than he makes from his trade with you.
So what do you do? Do you try to impose sanctions as a punishment for leaving? Or do you thank your lucky stars that he wants to carry on the trading relationship on which you depend - and without which your business will be decimated, because without it your entire business is teetering on the brink of recession/failure?
If you can find me one business person in the world who would choose the punitive route in this scenario, please point me in their direction. Or I can just wait to find them in the bankruptcy courts.
It'll never happen. Not in a million years and for the UK Government to suggest that it will is abject stupidity at best, and utter deception at worst.
Ten years to unravel our membership? Maybe in some areas like toasters or vacuum cleaners but trade? If, on June 24th we said, we'll continue to trade as usual, but we will impose 40% tariffs on EU goods into the UK if you haven't sorted the issue out in 3 month's time, I guarantee that the issue would be sorted within three months. There is absolutely no other option open to the EU - or more accurately to the German industrialists who would demand that Merkel and her puppet the EU did as they were told. No alternative whatsoever.
Thanks for reading.
There are clearly many things that will now need to be sorted out - UK border controls will need to be put back in place - this will really mean changing the designation of the queues at our ports and ending the assumption that EU passport-holders will sail through, not a lot more. This will take a couple of days and the changing of a few signs.
Clearly there will be issues of varying priority, complexity and urgency and these will take their own course, but this will be against a backdrop of a focused and clear directive that they must be sorted out to the satisfaction of both sides and that if this is not the case, the UK reserves the right to simply walk away from the negotiations and impose its own sovereign solution. And, now we are outside the EU and we are no longer beholden to our European 'friends', it is not incumbent upon us to help them, and they cannot insist we do things against our own will or interests.
It is also, now, within our gift to impose time limits beyond which we simply revert to our preferred default position. Resolving the many problems caused to the EU by our departure is their problem not ours and whilst we will, in a spirit of cooperation and as a friendly neighbour, try to help, we will not be subject to any kind of control from the EU. It is through our goodwill not our duty that we will help them - if it is in our interests to do so.
Trade is arguably the most urgent issue: Like a night's unoccupied hotel bedroom, you cannot get back that 'product' to sell the next day and this will be seen as the case as far as UK-EU trade is concerned. As far as the EU is concerned, the UK is its biggest customer in the world, the trade deficit in favour of the EU for 2015 was £89 billion - business and industry in the EU simply cannot afford for this trade to dry up whatever happens to the political machinery of the EU - a stoppage in trade, however brief, for the EU whose economy is already teetering on the brink of recession, could be disastrous.
By the same token, the UK will also be keen to establish a positive trade arrangement with the EU as quickly as possible after the vote on June 23rd.
And neither side will want to impose tariffs or any kind of barriers to trade upon the other because that would damage the relationship that is in the interestes of both sides - but is significantly more vital to the EU than it is to the UK.
If you think, therefore, that the EU will impose punitive trade sanctions against the UK in the event of a vote for Brexit, you are, quite simply - and this is a technical economic term - a fucking idiot.
Here's the best analogy I can come up with at the moment: Your biggest customer has decided to move out of the office building in which you both currently operate. This customer has found a better (cheaper, more convenient) place in which to base itself but it still wants to trade with you. Remember this is your biggest customer in the world and you make far more money by trading with this customer than he makes from his trade with you.
So what do you do? Do you try to impose sanctions as a punishment for leaving? Or do you thank your lucky stars that he wants to carry on the trading relationship on which you depend - and without which your business will be decimated, because without it your entire business is teetering on the brink of recession/failure?
If you can find me one business person in the world who would choose the punitive route in this scenario, please point me in their direction. Or I can just wait to find them in the bankruptcy courts.
It'll never happen. Not in a million years and for the UK Government to suggest that it will is abject stupidity at best, and utter deception at worst.
Ten years to unravel our membership? Maybe in some areas like toasters or vacuum cleaners but trade? If, on June 24th we said, we'll continue to trade as usual, but we will impose 40% tariffs on EU goods into the UK if you haven't sorted the issue out in 3 month's time, I guarantee that the issue would be sorted within three months. There is absolutely no other option open to the EU - or more accurately to the German industrialists who would demand that Merkel and her puppet the EU did as they were told. No alternative whatsoever.
Thanks for reading.
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