Saturday 2 July 2011

Time for Cameron to 'man up'?

It seems to me that all new Governments start out with ideals and a zest for action, with ideas and a 'can do' attitude.  There are usually some low hanging fruit following on from a previously bankrupt administration in terms of actions and policies and making a difference - 'they got bogged down but it's OK, we're here now, with sharpened tools and motivated ministers: Relax everyone, things will now get better, much better.'

The devil, residing quietly in the detail, smiles indulgently.

It normally takes a few years for the reality that is the civil service, together with their allies in other major public sector bodies like the NHS and Education to take complete control of the agenda and quite often they allow a new regime to win a few minor battles on policy, a few new initiatives that create positive headlines. But in the end it's like a small group of clever, motivated and agile flies, trying to move a massive boulder.

They keep trying, don't get me wrong. They try everything and anything, money, publicity, threats, the moral high ground, they try to undermine the rock, to wobble it, to take away its foundations, they cajole it to move, persuade it, flatter it. But the rock is just bigger, more solid and much more permanent than they are, so eventually they give up on this big difficult stuff and instead move on to easier tasks. They ban hunting, or introduce a freedom of information bill or go to war or sell forests or build runways or railway lines - in short, anything that doesn't involve the impossible task of moving the rock.

And yet. And yet. The rock continues to consume vast amounts of money to operate - exponential amounts as far as the health service is concerned, and health outcomes do continue to improve because of advances in technology and medical science, albeit at a vastly inflated price to everyone. The last government poured £millions into healthcare with little result. Doctors pocketed the extra money and now put in fewer hours of work. Why? Because they could. The checks and balances were not properly worked out and they took advantage of that.  Technological advances mean that this sector is effectively strapped to a vehicle that has an upward trajectory such that poor individual performance is completely offset by gains elsewhere. In other words doctors or even entire hospitals can under-perform spectacularly, but the overall upward momentum is guaranteed by technological advances that consume ever more money but cannot be refused because of the positive statistics compared to the outcomes secured by other forms of investment.

Think of it like the oil industry. Because demand is so universal, so inelastic, the 'industry' can perform as badly as it likes, can be as inefficient as it likes (can take out full page ads in the FT for £20grand a pop talking about 'Beyond Petrolium) but it will still secure massive income because there is no alternative.

Education continues to be (seen as) the most important thing a government can provide: more money is put in, day after day, but outcomes do not improve markedly. But we cannot address this properly for fear of harming the outcomes of our kids - and we all have kids and aspirations for them, so they too are like oil. Not negotiable and not even 'tinkerable' let alone properly changed for the better.  The risk of failure is simply too great.

So we continue to accept a health service that is poorly run and inefficient because it's the best we can do. We continue to put up with an education sector that, if it were a commercial enterprise, would have gone bust every year for decades because of piss poor performance. It is failing our kids and thereby, our country, but is, it seems, too big to move, too big to change.

It's time for this Government to 'man up' and tackle these big ticket items and to stop asking people with vested interests to advise it on policy.  It is time for the change that was promised and time for this government to retrieve these issues from the 'too difficult' drawer and to address them properly once and for all.  Otherwise they will, quite rightly be judged as being full of hot air and spin and PR and ultimately ineffectual.

You have this one chance Mr Cameron, to really make your name on a world and historic stage. It's a big as Thatcher transforming the country by standing up to the miners and it's just as necessary today as that was then. It's time to bring the health service into the modern age with deeds and not just spin and aspiration.  It's time to stand up to the teaching unions - the last refuge of militant laziness - and bring genuine reform and truly modern outcomes for our kids.

Don't blow it.

Friday 1 July 2011

Are we going down without a fight?

Perhaps one shouldn't blog at this time of night, especially on a day in which Arsenal seem to be in some sort of meltdown but since noone reads this stuff this is really about getting this off my chest. Excuse my french but frankly, I can't help wondering what the fuck is going on at the Emirates. I know that most of this is coming out via the media and not directly from the club itself and you could argue that maintaining a dignified silence while the real negotiations are taking place behind the scenes is a good policy. But it is starting to look as if our rivals are running rings round us both in the boardrooms and in the media and our silence is becoming deafening.

It is now true that we cannot compete financially with many of our rivals and after a relatively 'soft' season in the Premiership the likes of Chel$ki, Citeh and Man-U know that they have to spend big in order to compete next season. The difference is that they can spend big - they can shop in the Harrods of world football whereas we're looking for the sale in John Lewis. Where we have always been able to punch above our weight in the past is by bringing on younger players and putting them into a system that is more than a match for our rivals - we are (were) closer to the 'total football' displayed by Barca than anyone else in the Premiership last year. But if we cannot keep the top quality 'core' of that team and build upon it, especially by shoring up what was a woeful defense towards the end of the season, then we are not just looking at another season without a trophy, we're looking at a situation in which we'll have to let the big three (financially) go ahead and be left competing to be the best of the rest against the likes of Liverpool, Spuds, Villa et al.

We cannot go on building a young team for the future and then selling that future every time the big money men come calling.  We've fucked up (again apologies, see previous) contractually with Nasri, we've not yet plugged the defense and it looks like we might have to (have to? why for god's sake) accept the departure of Cesc for less than the £45-75 million that he's worth (given the value of other transfers recently).

If we don't secure some big name players and quickly, we'll be seen by the world as a second rate team. A selling club. A training ground for the top clubs, rather than being a top club. I hope that our silence is an indication of quiet confidence with big news in the pipeline, but I fear that we're about to squander, again, the potential that has been so carefully nurtured by Wenger at the club.

Frustrating and worrying times to be a Gooner.