What are the negotiations really about? What is on the table?
There's talk of it taking 10 years to negotiate our departure from the EU. Everyone one hears talking about the issue says it'll be difficult and complicated and technically challenging and time consuming. A lot of effort. Is it really worth it?
'Why don't we just stay in the EU and give ourselves a break. It'd be better for us all in the end after all.'
Seems to be what they're saying.
This is all utter bollocks of course.
Firstly, let's just get the EU stuff out of the way: The EU has been a disaster for every single member of it except Germany. And what a surprise that is. The EU is about the Germanification of Europe. Making everywhere a single place with universal laws, flag, anthem, army, tax laws, employment rights, retirement laws, working time directives, food and environmental standards.
It sets out to make everywhere Germany. And if you like food or culture or fairness or history or music or fun, that is really bad news.
Hitler wanted Europe to be a single place with its own flag, anthem, government, laws, currency, army, rulers.. whereas the EU.... oh hang on a minute...
Not convinced? Think about it. I mean really think about it.
What makes Europe a fantastic place is its diversity, the identity and culture, cuisine, and place that each individual country has to offer. Their history, their people, their silly traditions. All of which are under threat from a controlling and centralising EU.
And you'll hopefully note that I have not even mentioned their economies which have been reduced to basket-case status by the EU. That is a really really bad thing, but it's not the main thing.
Take France, just by way of illustrating my point. France has a traditional, almost subsistence farming culture. Its agriculture could not be described as efficient or financially sound. But it has created a wonderful way of life for millions of people. A way of life I admire and I would love to go and live there. But, and here's the rub, it is not sustainable. And it cannot be financially afforded by the French economy.
So here's what Germany has done. It has arranged to subsidise this French agri-based economy - that France cannot afford but which can be funded if the rest of Europe pays into the pot - in return for France becoming subservient to Germany in the guise of its puppet Brussels and the EU. Which has happened. Hasn't it? When was the last time France opposed anything the EU proposed? It never happens. The CAP is still 47% of the EU budget. Because it subsidises the French way of life. And we pay for that. France keeps its fiesty farmers on-side and Germany gets to make up the EU rules as it goes along without any protest from France.
Ask young people in Southern Europe if the EU has been a good thing. Ask yourself if you really want to go to Italy or Spain if they're basically Germany-next-the-sea in the future?
So the EU has been a disaster and needs to fail. Brexit is good for the UK in my opinion; bringing back sovereignty and control is a good thing. But for me it's not just about Brexit, it's about the demise of the EU and the resurgence of every European country (except Germany) back to its former status, economic prosperity and place. That's what this is all about for me.
I am European, to my boots. I am not 'just' English. (half Irish actually since you ask). I love Europe, have lived and worked there, worked in most European countries, and being opposed to the EU is my way of trying to preserve the outstanding qualities that Europe has to offer and to which the EU is a massive threat.
OK EU rant over.
So what's to negotiate as far as Brexit is concerned?
As far as I can see, everyone is talking about the upcoming negotiations, but no-one is actually considering what is going to be negotiated. Everyone seems to accept that the negotiations are terribly complicated and will take oodles of time to complete.
I don't. At all. It is just not that complicated.
The remainers want to suggest that it'll be endless and complicated and difficult and Brexiteers seem to have accepted this as gospel. It really isn't.
It's really quite simple. It's not complicated. It's about the principle of the thing. Yes there will be industries and people who will need clarity and deals and arrangements to be done going forward. There are 40 years of laws and legislation to be renegotiated. But the people who say it'll take years to resolve are completely missing the point. Our EU deal will not rest on whether we can sell a certain type of cheese to France. The signing of the deal will not be held up by trivia like that. It will be based on principles which can and will be identified and agreed upon very early in the negotiation process:
We have two simple choices to make in our negotiations with the EU. We either do a deal in terms of fundamental principles or we walk away and start again. I actually think walking away and starting again has many benefits but it is not the most likely outcome, although it needs to be a real and present threat to the EU if we are to secure the best deal for the UK:
When Theresa May goes in to bat for us at the beginning of our negotiations at the end of March - and I think it needs to be her not some proxy ambassador - she will (if she has any sense), state our position quite simply.
'We want free trade. We are the EU's biggest customer in the world, there is a £106.4 billion trade deficit between the UK and the EU in your favour and we come here offering to maintain that situation through free trade. We do not want to be governed by the EU and we will no longer accept the rules of the club that we are leaving, which means no free movement of people or sovereignty of the EU courts over our Parliament, but we do want to maintain free trade between the UK and the rest of Europe.
'This free trade is clearly in the interests of the UK and also of the EU. This is what we are offering. Tariff-free trade. As exists now. What changes is that we will no longer pay the membership fees of your club and we will no longer accept the rules of membership. We will control our own borders and make our own laws. But we will continue to be good neighbours, we will work together on security and other common interests, but we will not be governed by you.
'Free trade is what we are offering and seeking. If you decline this offer we will revert to WTO rules and if you impose trade tariffs we will respond in kind but with double the tariffs you impose on us.
'And we will not negotiate with 27 other countries. We will negotiate with the EU as their representative. The question is will you accept our free trade offer?
'If not, we need to know now and if not we will simply walk away from these talks and leave you to get on with it. If you are not willing to commit to continuing free trade in the interests of all EU members and the UK, (the key, big picture element of these talks) then we are not prepared to continue discussions on the minutia and will instead just sever all our ties with the EU forthwith. And in that case we will walk away and wish you good luck. You'll need it.
'Your call Mr Juncker'.
And that's it basically. If the EU does not accept the need for both sides to continue to trade freely I really don't see any need for negotiations on other issues. All the detail stuff will either follow the EU's acceptance of our position or we'll walk away and get on with our lives.
And then, if it survives 2017 which I think is in serious question, the EU will, in the end, have to come crawling back begging for us to trade with them. Either way, Theresa holds almost all of the high value cards in this game of poker and she, having set out her principled approach, has since kept her own council; has not wavered in her stance and has not missed any deadlines. While everyone else, on both sides of the channel have been flapping about, making threats and demanding to see plans and to have a say on strategy, she has just kept quiet - and resolute - about the whole process.
She's playing a blinder in my opinion.
Ten years? Two years? It'll take half an hour and then six months of drafting the main elements of the treaty. No longer than that. The minutia and the detail may well take longer, for each industry sector perhaps, but the main deal will either be done or discarded almost overnight.
In my opinion, if things look like not being resolved because of the intransigence of the EU leaders who have shown themselves not to give a shit about the economic suffering of people in member states particularly in southern Europe, the German industrialists will quietly invite Angela in for a chat and the free trade deal will be done very quickly thereafter.
I don't think these industrial leaders will allow a Romanian widget-farmer to derail what is the most important EU trade deal ever contemplated. However much Juncker et al want to bluster. In the end they need a good trade deal with the UK more than they ever have. We know it. They know it. They are simply not going to fuck with their biggest customer if they have any sense at all.
And actually the business leaders around Europe must be aware of this and will not, in my view, allow the failed politicians who populate the corridors of Brussels and Strasbourg fuck this up because of their own egos and their own misguided sense of power. It just won't happen.
But that's just my view.
Thanks for reading.
