Given that we almost never get a free and fair referendum on anything - no government is ever keen to offer a choice to the public unless it is very sure of getting its own way - the coming in/out referendum on our membership of the EU is a once in a lifetime chance. For those on both sides of the argument.
And let's be quite clear about this; the UK's referendum is not just about the UK, it's about the very existence of the EU as an organisation and as a project.
If the UK votes to leave the EU the whole project will be doomed to failure. Just look at the chaos that the prospect of net recipient Greece's departure is causing in Brussels. If the EU's second biggest net contributor and the Eurozone's biggest customer in the world (the UK) were to leave it would be catastrophic for the EU.
So this is not simply about the UK's membership, it's about the EU project in its totality.
If Dave really wanted to secure meaningful reforms he only has to threaten to support the campaign for Brexit (which would undoubtedly happen with the government's support) and the EU would be faced with the stark choice of abject failure, or being able to continue as a going concern. Without the UK's financial and political support the EU cannot possibly survive.
If you doubt this, consider who contributes financially to the EU. Germany, obviously but it would have to carry the EU on its back almost entirely. France is a net contributor on paper but given that 47% of the EU budget goes on the CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) which subsidises French subsistence farming this 'contribution' is more about paying some money in and then taking even more out behind closed doors. The French economy (I love France by the way) is a basket case that is only surviving because of EU support.
While the UK contribution is estimated to be not £28m a day (net) but actually some £90 billion a year - more here.
So who would provide the support Germany needs to run the EU if we left and France is essentially a chocolate fire guard? Well the only other two economies of any size in the EU are Italy and Spain. And they're both in deep and seemingly endless recessions (as a direct result of EU policies).
Yes there's Sweden, Denmark and Finland, efficient economies but without the clout or size to provide any real money to the EU.Their contribution would certainly not be the difference between success and failure for the EU. Holland then? Belgium? Like asking Budgens to bail out ASDA.
Everyone else is a net recipient. It might not be officially portrayed as such by the EU (whose books have not been signed off by auditors for the past 20 years) but it is the case. We are propping up the EU and have been for decades, without securing any meaningful benefits from being a member of the club.
But it's actually much worse than that. We're paying £90 billion a year towards the EU and we're their biggest customer on the planet and in return, we're sneered at by the EU. Our concerns and 'issues' are ignored or rejected. 'It's just the UK we don't have to listen to them.' We have an 8% and shrinking influence on the direction of the EU. Yet we pay for about 40% of it.
And it is not going in the way we want. It wants a federal Europe, we want free trade and cooperative nation states.
It's time we left them to it. It's time we stopped funding this monstrous imposition on the nation states of Europe. It's time we stopped lending our support to what is effectively a German take-over of Europe. We fought against this recently, now we're paying to help them achieve their original goal of a take-over of Europe?
It is an utterly mad state of affairs. Instead of defending the peoples of Europe from German tyranny, we're helping Germany to achieve its goals?
We can stop this take-over from happening. Not without some financial pain (but without any real financial pain for the UK) this time too. And we can help to free the people of Europe from Germany's yoke, this time without bloodshed. But be in no doubt that this is essentially the same thing that we fought for in the most recent unpleasantness (WW2). Freedom for nation states in Europe. Freedom for people against a take-over by a bigger predator nation.
And this time we don't have to melt down the iron railings outside our houses to be made into bullets. This time we can just put a cross in the box on a piece of paper. The result will be the same. In the right 'box' your cross will save the Europe that we know and love, from German tyranny.
Because that is really what is at stake here. What Europe looks like in 40 year's time. An essentially Germanic state or a place where being Spanish or Italian, Polish or French is not just a reality but an asset to the place.
Over the top? Maybe. But consider this: Where were we 40 years ago when we voted for free trade? And where are we now? An anthem, a flag, an EU army? A single federal state of 'Europe'? Run by people we don't vote for and who we cannot remove if we want to? A socialist dictatorship. Because that is what the EU is in essence.
And it is the world's only failing and shrinking trading bloc. Do you really want Spain to be German? France to be boring? Italy to be controlled? Everywhere in Europe to be the same place, regimented, controlled, poor, except for the ruling classes in Germany?
The current feeling across the UK is that the EU is 'not that bad', I'm not really worried about it, it's OK, I don't see the need for us to leave.
This is because the EU has deliberately used issues like straight bananas to turn people off from the real issues. But the issues are so fundamental to our future and the future of Europe that we have a duty to communicate their seriousness. To inform people of what their apathy will actually mean.
Get off your arse and understand that this is a clear and present threat to our freedoms. And tell others about it.
We need to leave - and kill off - the EU. It is the biggest threat we have faced since 1945 and it's success will have exactly the same consequences for Europe as if we had lost the war.
Vote 'no' in the coming referendum.
Voting for 'in' would be akin to embracing the views and the consequences of Mr Hitler.
I know that sounds extreme, but perhaps you'll consider the facts and the issues before you condemn me for making that comparison.
Thanks for reading.
You have completely misunderstood the Germans, IMO. While the root cause of their current issues does lie in WW2, it's not about conquest. It's about a desperate desire to no longer be German, so that they can flee from the horror of what they did.
ReplyDeleteThat's why every time they feel the EU is threatened, some German official will stand up and seriously ask if anyone wants another war to engulf Europe. It's not scaremongering; it's their own terror of and hatred for themselves.
To the Germans, the EU is their escape from having to be German. It's why they put up with paying most of the costs and why they allowed nations in (& to join the Euro) who were and are manifestly unsuited for either or both.
The EU was conceived in terror of the then-recent past; seen as the solution of the wrongly diagnosed problem of the ever-increasing warfare that tore Europe apart, ending in not one but two World Wars.
It is a wrong solution to a wrong diagnosis, driven by absolute terror. It is also a solution to the problems of a world that no longer exists. The solution to war is not empire, but trade. Which makes you wonder why we would ever want to be part of a protectionist trade block, doesn't it?
Founded in delusion; driven by fear; rooted in a world that no longer exists and totally, absolutely, detrimental to Britain's interests, which are always served by free and open trade with ALL parts of the world, not just one declining trading block.
There are plenty of reasons to support Brexit, from sovereignty to control of our borders, but the best is simply that we could build a far better and more prosperous future for all Brits from outside the EU then we ever could within it.
As Winston Churchill said, "Given the choice between Europe and the open sea, we must always choose the open sea.”
It is who we are.
Hi Elliot, thanks for your comments. Not sure I agree with your first three pars as to the German motivation behind the EU. You and I clearly view it from different ends of the telescope - to me the attampt to make everyone in Europe 'German' in terms of their behaviours & lifestyle doesn't coincide with moving away from being German. In either case your assessment thereafter is spot on and extremely well put.
DeleteThanks again. Mark
Ask yourself how English became the world language. It wasn't deliberate conspiracy, more a combination of the effects of Empire and the cultural dominance of the US and UK over much of the world. We never planned it, but English is the most spoken language worldwide because everyone who wants to communicate with the world rather than just their own part of it uses English.
ReplyDeleteThis is similar to the effects of Germany on the EU. They have by far the strongest economy, pay most of the bills and are the most committed to the idea of a Federal Europe. Given that set up, it's inevitable they will dominate, whether they want to or not. Worse, with the EU tottering on the brink due to its many basket case economies, the strongest MUST step forward and lead. That means either us or Germany, and we won't because we don't want total integration.
Looking at the general process over time, I think it's pretty obvious that the main goal is not 'German Led', but rather the end of Germany, France, and all other nations; subsumed into one giant federal entity. Look at the Euro, as the most blatant example: it's not a financial or economic decision, but a political one - a move further towards 'Ever Closer Union'. That's why the EU refuses to dump it, even though it's clearly one of the most epicly stupid ideas in financial history.
I have one rule when it comes to things like this: Given the choice between stupidity and conspiracy, always bet on stupidity, as it is by far the most likely option.
Germany hasn't been plotting to dominate Europe, its leaders are just far too stupid to understand the consequences of their actions.
Great stuff, really appreciate your comments. I agree on the 'English' usage issue. There are a variety of reports that it was a close run thing that the US adopted English rather than German in 1776. Not sure of the veracity of that but America's use of English has clearly been a major factor. That English is the universal language of the seas and shipping (the world's biggest industry) is also a factor in our favour of course.
ReplyDeleteOn the 'Germany and the EU issue' I can see your well-made point of course. But one of the major driving forces of the formation of the EU was the protection of smaller countries from domination by the bigger ones. As you say the subsequent direction may have happened by accident, Where we fundamentally disagree is that I think it was part of a plan, from the outset.
I understand your reasoning but I think Germany must have known what the consequences of its standardisation of Europe would be. And I think that its behaviour of enticing other countries 'in' via financial incentives that would obviously not work to the benefit of the entrant, gives the game away.
While you think the plan is for the end of Germany, I think it's for the domination of Germany. Yes it might be called the EU, but who will be pulling the strings?
Either way, I think we agree it's a terrible thing for most of Europe. I think Germany has effectively taken over France economically, which removes any credible opposition to its aspirations other than the UK. And I think this referendum is possibly the last chance we will have to preserve all that's great about European diversity. If the UK is brought on-side via a 'yes' vote, that's pretty much 'it', done and dusted politically regardless of the economic problems that are inevitably round the corner.
We'll see.
Thanks again.
I think we're in near-complete agreement about the total undesirability of having a pan-European empire. Especially one that crushes, destroys and despoils the many nations that once grew there.
DeleteBut it seems we will not agree on the reasons behind Germany's domination of the EU, nor on what they hope to gain from the EU in the first place. So we shall simply have to agree to disagree. Until next time! :D