What will the EU Referendum question be?

As the veracity of recent election polls suggest, the question asked is a key element in the result of the survey, poll or the election itself.

Watch this perhaps?

Questions matter. So what will be the referendum question?

Should the UK remain a member of the EU?

That is probably the simplest way of putting the question - and it seems likely that it will be the one that is used as of this evening.

It is relatively straightforward given that the arguments to and forth will hopefully have been properly aired by the time that one is asked it. I'd be happy with it.

It does of course allow the 'in' campaign to use the more positive 'yes' mantra - as in 'yes we can' as used positively so effectively by Mr Obama. Even though, actually, he really couldn't.

It allows this kind of imagery to be used:

But frankly I think this is too important an issue for everyone in the UK for voters to be decisively swayed by this kind of stuff.

Particularly when this (below) is a much more realistic vision of the outcome of the vote:

There are of course alternatives that either side would no doubt prefer:

Do you think that the UK should remain part of Europe?

Do you think the UK should risk its international influence by leaving the world's largest economic partnership?

Do you think the UK should put at risk 3.5 million jobs by leaving the EU?

Which are essentially what the 'yes' campaign will be saying. Or:

Do you want the UK to be governed from Brussels by people you don't vote for and can't get rid of?

Is it better for the UK to trade with the world (including Europe) or just the shrinking Eurozone?

Do you want the UK to lose the pound and join the Euro?

Now my most discerning readers will notice a difference between these two positions. The top three are emotive but not factually defensible. Don't think for a single minute that this reality will stop them being used ad nauseam. Particularly when if one boils the whole argument down to back-uppable facts, the 'yes' campaign will have very few to call on. They also have very few tangible benefits that we secure form being in the EU.

The bottom three are essentially facts. Realities. Consequences. If we vote at the forthcoming referendum to stay 'in' the result will be used as a mandate giving the EU the 'right' to move on towards ever closer union - which is its clearly stated direction of travel in any case. Regardless of how we vote.

And that mandate will mean that we will be governed more by Brussels than by our own Parliament and that our votes, representation and democratic powers will be diminished in terms of our own local, regional and national issues. It will mean that the global trade we are involved in will be via the EU and subject to 27 other nations' views rather than just those that are in the interests of the UK. And, as night follows day, it will, ultimately mean that we will lose the pound and join the Eurozone - there can be no other outcome if we remain within the EU. It simply does not function as an economic model if this is not the case eventually.

I'd like to see us leave the EU for a number of reasons - not all of which are just about the UK by any means. I love Europe, have worked in most European countries, have friends there, love its diversity, culture and regional/national differences that make it such a special place. I think the EU has shafted millions of people, particularly in southern Europe, who now have no way of devaluing their currencies, rebalancing their economies and offering any hope for future recovery, much less prosperity. I'd like us to leave because if we do the EU will fail and that will free these countries and people to embark on a much brighter future, nationally and individually.

But this referendum will be fought on UK rather than international issues. And from the UK perspective we need to govern ourselves and have local democratic representation; have the ability to trade with the world not just the failing EU and we need to keep the pound which is the key to our sovereignty, stability and prosperity.

I'm not involved at the heart of this process but it is one that I have followed very closely for a couple of decades now and I have seen absolutely no reason to change my mind. The EU is bad for the UK and bad for Europe. If the rest of Europe wants to continue down a road that will see everyone dependent upon Germany in quite short order, that's up to them. They're entirely misguided in that desire but Germany's thinly disguised apparatus (The EU) has made it extremely difficult financially for them to choose an alternative route.

But it is not a direction that we want to see and we therefore should not be part of the process and we certainly should not be spending tens of £billions a year to support and fund that process.

I genuinely believe that we can win this referendum in a way which is best for the UK by voting 'no'. I have been cynical about our chances in the past - the power of the 'establishment' the existential desperation and financial/communications power of the EU - will make it a very difficult fight and almost certainly a very dirty one. But in the past few weeks I have noticed a significant change in the mood.

I think social media will have a massive part to play. I think that the facts will come out. And if they do, I think there can be only one outcome.

That's not to say, we're home and dry - far from it. It means redouble your efforts because I think there is now a realistic chance of us exiting the EU. And I have not thought that before in the last 20 years.

Thanks for reading.