A 'reformed EU' seems to be the mantra of all UK politicians and commentators these days.
Dave talks about it as if it's a done deal. Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband (where are they now?) talked about it during the election as if it's already happened or as if it was just a matter of our asking the EU to reform itself in the ways we want and it would happen.
Even the BBC is talking about a 'reformed EU' suggesting two things: One is a tacit acknowledgement (by the BBC!) that the EU needs reform if it is to be attractive to UK voters and to the UK as a whole. And secondly that this 'reformed' EU will happen.
It's almost as if we're already in a post-EU-reform-world where everything is just fine and dandy already. That's great. Thanks politicians, you rock.
There is just one thing. One small fly in the ointment.
The EU is not talking about reform. It is talking about pressing on towards a federal Europe.
A single place with a single flag, anthem, central bank, universal laws on tax, employment, pensions, human rights, a single EU army. Free movement of people and goods on an EU-wide basis.
These things are not 'up' for reform, they're set in stone as far as the EU is concerned.
So we're not talking about a 'reformed' EU in any real sense. We're essentially talking about some at best minor reforms to the UK's relationship with the EU. And that is a different situation entirely.
So what, in your mind, Dave et al, are the reforms going to deliver to the UK?
We want freedom, national sovereignty, control over our own borders, the ability to make global trade deals on our own behalf, the ability to make our own laws where our national government holds sway over Brussels. All of which are anathema to the direction in which the EU is inexorably headed.
Dave is talking about our being able to control our welfare system so that immigrants cannot just turn up and claim benefits from day one and then send the money home to Bulgaria (or wherever) as is currently the case. But that is a minuscule issue in the great scheme of things. It's a bucket to stop a flood. It's tinkering. It's probably fair in broad terms but if we controlled our own borders and were attracting skilled people who will make a positive contribution to the UK and were therefore welcome to come, we would probably also extend our benefits system to help them out in the short term. So it's not a solution, it's actually a pretty mean-spirited attempt to stop immigration without having the fundamental border controls that we really need.
So these 'reforms' of which they all speak as if they're a 'done deal'? What exactly are they?
We haven't even begun to negotiate yet have we? So to call the EU a 'reformed EU' is a bit premature isn't it? Particularly when the EU has absolutely no intention of entertaining any kind of fundamental 'reform' but might be willing to offer some changes to our relatonship with the EU for reasons of expediency - keeping us on the hook and paying £billions in to fund the project.
And of course we haven't even been told what are the reforms we're going for. We don't know what Dave's 'red lines' are. We don't know what success looks like as far as Dave - and the UK - are concerned.
And of course we won't be told what they are until Dave comes back from Brussels riding on his white charger with a list of 'achievements' carefully worked out between Dave and Brussels to look great but actually to make absolutely no difference to the EU and very little difference to the UK. 'Achievements' upon which Dave and our pro-EU establishment will base their campaign for us to vote 'in' in the referendum.
My guess is that we will be thrown a fairly sizable 'fish' by the EU. You have to remember that if we do vote for Brexit the EU will fail. Almost overnight. Not sure about that? Consider the chaos that the prospect of net recipient Greece leaving the EU has caused. If the 2nd or 3rd biggest contributor (UK) were to leave the EU would be in meltdown.
So the big fish will be handed over by the EU. My guess is that it will be about control of our borders and immigration. By no means the biggest issue in terms of our relationship with the EU, but a highly prominent and publicly popular issue that Dave will then be able to shout from the rooftops as a sign of his success.
And the fact that if we vote 'in' in the referendum we will eventually become part of the Eurozone, lose the pound and our status as a sovereign nation state, will be conveniently ignored and forgotten. Until, inevitably, it happens and they use the 'mandate' of our referendum to assume ever more powers over us and reduce us, as night follows day, to bit-part players in a single 'country', a small part of the world's only failing trading bloc and with very little influence to change its direction.
Some commentatiors say that if we don't have a seat at the top table we will not be able to influence EU decisions in future. But in reality, now, when we do have a seat, what influence do we have? Our vote in the EU is currently worth 8% and shrinking as new members join. And even when it was a considerably larger percentage, how often did we secure changes that were in the interests of the UK? We were always ultimately voted down by Germany and France and these days two small countries like Luxembourg and Portugal could combine their influence to veto any changes proposed by the UK.
Having a seat at the top table is hardly of any vaue to us whatsoever - certainly not a good return on our 'investment' of £tens of millions a day for the last 40 years. And yet Dave wants us to continue in this relationship, to keep paying in towards a project that is palpably not going in the direction that we want to see.
If one really thinks about this entire scenario, puts one's apathy and fear of change aside just for a moment, it is not difficult to reach the conclusion that we're all being taken for a ride, for the benefit of Germany and France and in a way that is not good for the UK nor for the millions of young and not so young people across the whole of southern Europe.
It's time we realised this and got the hell out.
Thanks for reading.
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