You do of course realise that the local elections were the Hors d'oeuvre?

UKIP did well in the local elections yesterday; the Tories did badly, but not that badly given where we are on the electoral cycle; Labour did well in terms of number of seats, but no-where near as well as they should be doing less than a year out from a general election. And, for Labour, the realisation seems to be hitting that UKIP is as much of a threat to them as it is to the Tories. Oh and that Ed is a liability.  The Lib Dems are, quite simply, toast.

So not an earthquake then.

And yet political commentators are suggesting it is. And the main parties are all thinking that things have changed, immeasurably for the worse, for them.

Many people on my timeline who are anti UKIP are pointing to seat numbers, councils controlled, MPs in parliament. The same old smug stuff that has been at the heart of UKIP's rise to popularity.

But today's results were the Hors d'oeuvre; the main course, which has already been chosen and cooked (voted upon) will be served on Sunday. It was the focus of the entire campaign for all of the parties and it is a national vote.

And in that national vote it is conceivable that UKIP will come first. No local issues, no 'incumbents' with local popularity and track record (good for them) but a truly national vote.

And one with the issue of our membership of the EU front and centre in people's minds.

So don't bother looking for the 'earthquake' in today's results. They were just tremors. The aftershocks of what will, I think, be an earthquake, will start on Monday.

Thanks for reading.