You'll have heard that old chestnut that 'if it ain't broke don't fix it'?
And maybe the alternative one that 'if it ain't broke, break it and make it better'.
It's all a bit 'cowboy' logic and language for me. But it's quite clear in its meaning.
The thing is we do seem to be living in a system that is 'broken'. Not just financially (although I could argue that point) but in terms of the connection between voters' aspirations and the people who govern us, supposedly in our interests.
Do you believe that any of the mainstream parties really have your interests at heart? Do you really believe that your MP and the government actually cares about your interests, values, personal prosperity? It seems to me that most UK politicians are in it for themselves and all three main parties seem hell-bent on handing control over us to unelected bureaucrats in Brussels.
Because unless we exit the EU that is what will happen. Yes Dave talks about renegotiation but some German eurocrats are already publicly stating that they will veto any proposed changes that disrupt the ongoing closer union, towards a federal united states of Europe. And that's the Germans who seem increasingly wary about the progress of the EU - because ultimately they will have to pay for it not to sink. The French and Belgians in particular are much more vitriolic in their condemnation of any UK-driven changes.
So, as a Tory (ish - increasingly 'ish') I hope Dave gets some meaningful renegotiations through and can maybe take back some of the sovereign controls over our own destiny that so many of our predecessors fought and died to achieve very recently. He should have a chance really. As the second or third (depending upon when you measure it) net contributor, and the Eurozone's biggest customer (market for exports), we are in a position of power. If we leave they will almost certainly fail. If they put up any trade sanctions on the UK following a Brexit, they will not only fail but there will be mass-unemployment in Europe the like of which we haven't seen since the 1930s.
So Dave has every right and the power required to face down these sneering Eurocrats if he chooses so to do. But will he? I think it's vanishingly unlikely. Dave is 'common purpose' to his core - a strong supporter of the EU project, even though it is essentially a socialist (communist even) body. I have tried but simply cannot figure that out in terms of ideology - it's as if they've all signed up for this project and are deliberately not telling us why.
If the EU is so Utopian, I wonder why they won't tell us the reasoning behind it? Or why they try to keep it off the agenda with deliberate joke stories like straight bananas etc., which cause us to switch off when the serious stuff comes through?
What will happen - if Dave actually gets to that point by being returned to office next year - is that he will go off with his little satchel, to Brussels with a list of demands. He'll be wanting some big fish to bring back with him in terms of concessions and guarantees of British sovereignty. They might chuck him a few sprats in areas that don't really matter to the EU and which will certainly not derail the federal Europe project and he'll come back in a spun blaze of glory telling us 'peace in our time' or some such guff.
Then (if he is in that position) he'll campaign for an 'in' vote at a referendum in 2017.
And that will be it, probably. The power of the EU funding what will effectively be an existential campaign (if we go they fail) and Dave's as PM will almost certainly win the day and we can then kiss goodbye to having any meaningful influence over how we are governed in the future.
At that point, whether you're a Tory, Labour supporter or a Lib Dem (if there are any left by then) it will be largely irrelevant what your political views are because they will be meaningless. The party for whom you vote will be largely powerless to effect any changes on your behalf because the EU will be making almost all of the meaningful decisions by which you live your life.
All the Big Brother stuff - cctv, trackers in cars, thought police, anti free speech - will be brought in and there'll be nothing you can do about it.
There is however an alternative scenario. It's less likely to occur than the one I describe above but it is not impossible and the recent rise of UKIP in the polls has served to make me a bit more hopeful.
What we need is an EU referendum - a chance to vote for Brexit. That's fundamental - without a referendum the EU machine will simply grind on and what I describe above will occur, as night follows day. Including our losing the pound by the way.
A strong showing for UKIP on Thursday will keep the pressure on and keep the EU high on the UK political agenda at the perfect time when there is less than a year to go before a General Election. A brilliant showing would heap pressure not just on Dave but also Mr Miliband, to deliver what the people want - a referendum. I neither know nor care what effect it would have on the Lib Dems - they're increasingly irrelevant.
A strong showing, followed by continued gains in the polls for UKIP on the basis of a national election could usher in a seismic shift in UK politics. Especially if UKIP continues to make gains not just amongst disaffected Tories (like me) but also from traditional Labour supporters who are beginning to wake up to the fact that Labour is not the 'worker's' party any more.
At that point all bets are off. We'll have gone beyond the 'if it ain't broke don't fix it' stage to 'it is most certainly broken, we need to fix it if we are to survive as a party' (Lab and Con).
And at that point (this could conceivably happen next weekend if UKIP does really well - and when you've been wanting this anti-EU thing to happen for 30 years or so, that's quite exciting), Dave - or Ed but that's less likely - could be forced to acknowledge that not only do we need a referendum, but that the prevailing public opinion is for 'out'. And that neither will be elected unless their 2015 manifesto stance is for a free vote on our membership - i.e. with no campaign either way.
Such a scenario would also send shock-waves through the EU, strengthening Dave's hand in any renegotiations so he'd be much more likely to get what (he says) he wants. It could also, conceivably (although I may be being a bit greedy here) mean that if (when) he doesn't get real concessions from the EU, he could be forced into campaigning for an 'out' vote.
It's sad that I have had to use the word 'forced' so often here - it means that what I said at the start, about politicians not really having your interests at heart and therefore need to be forced to do what we want them to do, is probably true. But if that's where we are - and I think it is - then so be it.
We are clinging on by our fingertips to any vestige of democratic voter influence over how we are governed. The polls suggest that increasing numbers of people are seeing through the controlling establishment bullshit and don't believe a word of what the campaigning-not-reporting mainstream media is churning out against UKIP.
So your vote on Thursday is important and might be recorded just in time for this country. You may not agree with all or any UKIP policies, you may, like me, wince at some of the posters, but if you want the ability to be properly and locally represented in the future, from a left, right or centrist viewpoint, instead of giving away any influence you have to unelected Eurocrats who will know nothing about your life, you should vote for UKIP on Thursday.
It's not a 'forever commitment' but it is vital as I have outlined above, for the future of this great country.
Thanks for reading.
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