Depends where you sit obviously, but from my perspective - wanting us out of the EU for a myriad of reasons which I have blogged about incessantly before - it would be this:
In my ideal world UKIP will do very, very well. They'll confirm that the UK population wants a say on the EU. A referendum with a clear question and a binding result. In my opinion, having waited for so long for it, a vote either way would be very powerful and not open to any kind of fudging by whoever's in power at the time. I just cannot see any UK administration failing to act on the result of what would be such a high profile vote.
And make no mistake it will be a very dirty fight. The EU would be fighting for its very survival and using your money to promote an 'in' vote. If we go, they fail. And quite quickly. So it's existential for them. Their inflated salaries, cushy lifestyle, solid gold pensions would all be at stake.
And these are people who don't hesitate to sell out their own countries if it's in the interests of the EU.
But I'm getting ahead of myself here a little. A good result for UKIP (which I think likely), what would that mean for politics in this country?
For the Tories not that much on an EU basis. Dave has already declared he'll have a referendum by 2017 or will resign. Tory back-benchers would simply not allow that commitment to be ignored whoever was their leader - many if not most are anti EU.
But from a 2015-election viewpoint a strong - perhaps overwhelming - UKIP vote could deliver a seismic change in the Tory outlook: 'Many of these people are Thatcherite Tories, we need to win them back if we are to have any chance of a majority in 2015'.
More on that later.
For Labour a strong UKIP vote, particularly in their heartlands, would also be seismic: People waking up to the fact that Labour is no longer a party for the workers but a careerist enclave that has just as many toffs as the Tories do, and which cares little about ordinary people, would shake Labour to its core. And their stance on the EU - which has been almost invisible recently but is essentially not to hold a referendum unless there's a major treaty change - is denying people their say. If enough people say, in the form of a UKIP vote on May 22nd, 'we want a say on the EU', they'll have to change their approach and offer a referendum.
And to me, that would be a major victory since it would almost guarantee a referendum on our membership of the EU by 2017. I think it's a possible scenario. Perhaps even likely. The establishment, including the Main Stream Media (MSM) is against that outcome but if UKIP does well on May 22nd, it's almost inevitable.
As far as the Lib Dems and the Greens are concerned what would a strong UKIP showing mean?
Who cares? They're toast. As far as the Greens are concerned, fascist toast.
Back to the Tories (keep up). Last year's local elections identified 57% of the voting public were in favour of what are broadly right wing policies. Non Labour to put it another way. But that vote was split between UKIP and the Tories which meant that Labour would be the main party in a general election even though the majority was against them. Clegg's outrageous opposition to boundary changes after he was granted a vote on AV didn't help either.
But if Dave could 'unite the right' he'd win. Comfortably.
Trouble is he's so 'common purpose', so Europhile that he can't bring himself to do it. I have blogged before that it sometimes seems he'd rather lose his job than be behind a Brexit.
And the last thing that UKIP want is for Dave to turn all Eurosceptic on them because it will pull the rug out from under them. Don't worry 'kippers' it's not gonna happen.
But if he could find a way of entering into a pre-election coalition with UKIP, not fighting seats in which the other was standing...
Effectively an anti-Labour ticket that would stop us from being governed again and so soon by the shambles that is Labour. And would deliver a referendum on the EU.
And perhaps (I'm being greedy now) would offer an open vote on the referendum (not spun, no campaign for in or out but an honest debate on the issues), that would be heaven.
So anyway vote UKIP on May 22nd. It could help to save our nation state - you know, the thing that so many of our ancestors shed blood to secure.
Recently.
Up to you now.
Thanks for reading
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