There isn't exactly a clear, well-defined, road map to indicate how UKIP should now proceed having given the establishment one hell of a fright and at least begun the process of establishing itself as a credible political party in the UK.
Yeah yeah one set of votes, no councils controlled, no Westminster MPs blah-di-blah. But they have been setting the agenda for the whole of this campaign. They have clearly unearthed a feeling amongst many sections of the population - from all sides of the political divide - that the elite, 'careerist politician' model of UK government is simply not fit for purpose any more.
The disconnect between the governed and those who govern has been exposed in its true light and people are beginning to reach the (correct) conclusion that their views, beliefs and concerns are simply being ignored by parliament. More, from some time ago, here
UKIP has also been given a great deal of momentum by the campaign in the media - and it has been a campaign - to discredit the party. The media, thinking itself all-powerful, set out to give UKIP maximum publicity; to shine the spotlight as glaringly as possible in the confident belief that this would expose UKIP, undermine it, flag up the nasty side of the party that the media was certain was there.
The trouble is that it simply isn't there as far as the growing number of UKIP supporters is concerned. So whilst the media including especially the BBC sees UKIP's policy of controlling our borders and reducing immigration; having a system based on making proper checks on who's coming in, like they do in the US, Canada, Australia; as being 'nasty' and 'racist', many people see it simply as common sense. The disconnect is not just between politicians and voter, but also between journalist and viewer/reader. More here.
I have to confess that some of the posters made me wince but this was a 'down and dirty' election campaign with limited time in which to get the message across. I don't, therefore criticise UKIP for going big on immigration because it was (is) a major issue, is slightly controversial (and therefore likely to have the biggest impact) and it has clearly had massive resonance amongst the voting public.
And if it's OK for the media to pillory UKIP as 'racist' (even though none of the other party leaders would agree) how is it unacceptable for UKIP to be equally strident in its communication? The EU blocks immigration of people from outside of the Eurozone - from Africa, Asia, the Commonwealth etc. - its trade tariffs are essentially stopping African farmers from trading their way into the first world. But that's not racist. Whereas wanting to establish our own border controls - one of the first duties of any sovereign national government is racist? Off you jolly well fuck with that idea.
To an extent the next steps for UKIP will be dictated by the fall-out from tonight's Euro-election results. I've read many anti-UKIP commentators belittling the so-called 'earthquake' promised by Mr Farage, but even before the results have been announced, the leaders of two-out-of-three main parties are under threat: There must be a growing pressure on Mr Miliband to offer a referendum on our EU membership. In addition, Ed faces the terrifying prospect that UKIP is being increasingly seen as representing the working man and woman, who have simply been ignored and neglected by Labour whose front bench includes as many smug careerist toffs as the Tories'.
And while Dave's stance will probably remain unchanged - a referendum but campaighning for an 'in' vote whatever the results of renegotiations - he too is under pressure to go early on the poll and he now faces the clear dilemma that UKIP could split the Tory vote in 2015.
As far as Clegg is concerned - a man who described being anti-EU as unpatriotic: yes so wanting the UK to make its own laws, control its own destiny and have UK voters deciding on the direction of the UK is 'unpatriotic' - he's toast. He was probably toast before UKIP came along, such is the paucity of principles in his party, but UKIP is probably - and gleefully - banging in the few last nails in the Lib Dem party's coffin as we speak.
What has happened, in my view unarguably, is that the issue of the EU and our membership of it, is now firmly on the agenda and is very unlikely to go away. The establishment has, for years, tried to play down anything to do with the EU - to keep it as quiet as possible so that it could continue the process of taking over our lives. Even the joke issues like straight bananas were carefiully calculated to make voters switch off so that we would then not notice when the big issues were passed through without our having a say on them. More here.
Dave will no longer be able to go to Brussels with his list of renegotiations and then come back (when they have not been achieved) saying 'well we got this, this and this, that's great for the UK, and now we'll campaign for an 'in' vote'. Because people will know what he hasn't achieved and will see through the fudge that this process will inevitably be. More here.
In my view the next steps for UKIP, apart from the initial responding-to-fall-out stuff, are about establishing credibility. Not losing the 'man of the people' stuff that Mr Farage has so brilliantly used in his favour, but to bring in more good and credible people. To discuss the wider issues of the EU and their other policies, to seek acceptance, approval, advocacy even, from respected economists, academics and commentators; in short to position themselves as mature, considered and credible.
That is a big ask but it is not impossible. I think the media will tend to back off in terms of it's hostility - some individual journalists wont, but then they've burned their bridges already during this campaign and have no-where left to go (eh Dan?) - and that, without the immdiately looming deadline of an election, will tend to take a more considered look at what UKIP is really about. That may be a danger to the party, but it is also, undoubtedly an opportunity to get a more considered, less frantic message across.
So that, in my opinion is the next challenge facing UKIP - to go from protest party, to calm, considered credibility. If that is beyond them, then they deserve to fail. If not they could well usurp the Lib Dems as one of the three main parties in the UK which would, in my opinion, deliver a welcome shift to the right in UK politics - where, let's face it, there is a yawning gap at the moment what with Dave and Ed treading on each others' toes in the centre ground.
Finally I have to mention another major organisation that will be feeling the heat of UKIPs strong performance when the results come in later tonight. The BBC. It's left bias has been clear to me for some time but by covering the news it has just about managed to be in a position to refute those allegations in the past. It often sails close to the wind but usually stops just short of being a propaganda vehicle for the left, for the EU, for 'Common Purpose' et al. But by actively campaigning against UKIP during this election the mask has slipped. For me, irretrievably.
It now has some serious explaining to do I think.
Thanks for reading.
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