Whilst the EU seems bent on punnishing economic progress what chance does Dave have of securing reforms?

It is inconceivable to me that Dave could go into a UK General Election in 2015 without telling us what powers he'd want back from the EU as part of his much touted 'renegotiation' of the UK's membership.

UKIP has done a fine job in getting the EU issue much higher on our agenda - albeit on the back of immigration which should not be the biggest driver of our concerns but sadly probably will be, allowing all the tired old 'racist' bullshit to be wheeled out again and again.

Here's what Dave has said already:

It's a start: Unrealistic in my view, but at least we're starting to get a picture of what Dave will want to renegotiate.

Here's Frau Merkel in tomorrow's Sunday Times for example:

For the record, I am fundamentally against our membership of the EU - not because I am in any way anti Europe, just anti this ridiculous monolithic organisation which is frankly out of control and ruining many areas of our continent for generations to come. For me, the only way is a complete Brexit which would allow us to stand on our own two feet again and trade with the whole world including Europe without having to adhere to the ridiculous red tape that we currently (and always seem to) comply with, unlike many other EU members when it is inconvenient for them.

So what Dave says here (above) whilst being attractive as far as the UK is concerned, does not solve the much wider problems facing Europe. But if we go, the EU will almost certainly fail and that would solve many of the huge problems being faced by the ordinary people of Europe: France is bankrupt and has been for years, Germany is in decline having squandered the recent boom years built on its massively advantageous exchange rate courtesy of the Euro; Italy & Spain are basket cases, Holland is on the brink of collapse - and they're the better performing European economies.

A piece on Italy's terminal decline from today's Spectator here.

And by being tied to the Euro, with no ability to devalue their currencies and rebalance their economies, the only prospect the under-performing members of the Eurozone face, is unrelenting economic failure for decades to come. A terrifying prospect not just for the young people of southern Europe, but for us all as this situation will almost certainly give rise to conflict, violent protest and civil unrest - it is already doing so.

We've just had a £1.7 billion bill from the EU because we're doing relatively well economically. When did doing the right thing become punishable? And, by the way, how bad are their economies in Germany and France that the Greeks and Cypriots are having, effectively, to bail them out?

And when most members of the Eurozone aren't even complying with the criteria of the Maastricht Treaty for membership, why should be be complying with their nonsensical financial claims upon us?

Our own ratio of debt to GDP is pretty close to France (about 90%) but we have a growing economy because we haven't instigated the crazy socialist policies of Monsieur Hollande and have a better outlook, for which the proposal is we should now be punished. A strange way of encouraging economic success by the EU.

But what are the chances of Dave actually securing any of his wish-list items? The EU has publicly stated its intention to go for ever closer union, plans are in place for an EU army, it has a flag and an anthem, it wants to complete the single European act as soon as possible. It wants a federal, 'United States of Europe'. All of which is fundamentally incompatible with Dave's planned renegotiations.

So will his renegotiations be successful? He'd need support from France, Germany, Italy and the senior Eurocrats in Brussels. I think that's quite unlikely. As in 'it's quite unlikely' that I'll jump over the moon in a single bound tomorrow morning.

It simply ain't gonna happen.

Which means Dave will lose face and credibility massively and his only credible option, having been denied his fundamental requirements, would be to support a UK exit at the proposed referendum. Effectively they would have called his bluff and said 'so, what you got Dave?' And that my friends would be a massive game-changer if he had the balls and the courage of his convictions which, I accept, is probably questionnable.

If he did pursure this logical line, it would probably win him the next election for a start, making the referendum inevitable (which it certainly is not at the current time whatever the Tories tell you - 'only we can deliver a referendum').

It would also make Brexit much more likely if not inevitable - it will certainly be a dirty fight with the EU and its paid supporters amongst our main stream media (MSM) including the BBC, fighting for the EU's very survival, but if the Tories were campaigning for Brexit it would be likely to happen.

So Dave's 'red lines' on renegotiations are critically important, as is our then holding his 'feet to the fire' so he has no alternative but to campaign for 'out'. He knows this of course which is why we need to be vigilant to ensure that this renegotiation cannot be some sort of fudge that allows him the room to campaign for 'in' when (if) the time comes.

I don't think he can credibly go into the next election without telling us what his red lines are - UKIP and the steady rise of the EU issue on our agenda has put paid to that in my view - and Dave cannot, therefore, fudge the issue when the EU tells him 'non'.

It's time, therefore, for vigilance and for taking all this forward on a step by step basis. Sooner or later (I think sooner) he'll run out of wriggle room and that could change everything for the UK, Europe and the prospect of a much more prosperous future for everyone on the continent and here at home.

IPSOS Mori produced a poll earlier this week which found that 56% of Britons would currently vote to stay in.I'd have to say that this is a very surprising result given the growing popularity of UKIP and also the relatively high numbers of Tories who also want out. Still IPSOS Mori is a reputable organisation. Which gets most of its work from government. This fight might already have started.

What is clear to me is that there seems to be a dangerous lack of understanding of the threats to the UK's - and Europe's - future prosperity that the current, inflexible and frankly failed, direction of the European Union poses to us all. There is much work to be done to turn this around, but progress is being made in my opinion.

Thanks for reading.