If the EU - and in particular the single currency Eurozone (EZ) - was a thriving, dynamic, go ahead global driving force and powerful, successful economic engine then one would have great difficulty arguing that we would not be much better off being a member of the club. In that scenario we would be hanging on to the coat-tails of this powerhouse and being inexorably pulled towards success and prosperity to the benefit of everyone in the UK.
Sadly, however, this is a long way from being the case and nor can one make the case that the EZ is simply enduring a short and temporary period of economic difficulty. The EZ as a whole has been bumping along either side of the line that marks recession since well before the 2007 crash and the current overall growth figure is 0.3% across the group - with, surprise surprise, Germany doing best with a growth figure of 2.4%. Recent minor recoveries in Spain, France and Italy are stalling and industrial and political unrest in those countries is hampering their economies.
Many EZ countries are actually in recession and most are teetering on the brink and because they are locked in to the Euro which is far to strong for them in terms of its international value, they cannot re-balance their currencies and thereby their economies. This has led to the position where there is no obvious way out for them. The prospect they face is endless recession, growing unemployment and their economic position where they are literally at the mercy of the stronger German industrial machine (which has been buying up companies in southern Europe like it's going out of fashion). This is why youth unemployment in southern Europe, Greece, Spain and Italy in particular, is around 50% and is a cause of growing social unrest and the rise of extreme political parties.
Not a thrusting economic driving force then - more like a millstone around the necks of most European economies. Including (must do given the EZ is our biggest trading partner) the UK, which is why we're growing business, despite the EU, in other parts of the world and our dependence on the EU is shrinking - 75% in 2005, <44% now, projected to be around 25% by 2020.
It's worth remembering, at this point, that the Euro was supposed to be about sharing economic prosperity more widely around the continent of Europe, bringing up the more traditionally weak economies to the levels of Germany. No credible economist would suggest that this has been successful and nor would they state that this is likely to happen anytime soon.
So we're not hanging on to the coat-tails of a thriving EU, indeed the opposite is true: This great global trading bloc, with its 500 million people across a geographical land-mass stretching from Iceland to Russia... and do you know who its biggest customer - it's biggest global trading partner is? It is a small island with a population of just 60million, situated just off the north-west coast of France. And it's called the UK.
There was a trade imbalance, in favour of the EU, of £106.4 billion for 2015 - that means the 60 million UK population buys £106.4 billion more goods and services from the 440 million people in the rest of Europe than they buy from us. And that obviously means that we create/sustain £106.4 billion worth of more jobs and income for the EU than it does for us.
But really, at a time when the term 'economic illiteracy' has been banded about by Mr Osborne, how likely is the EZ to impose tariffs on its biggest customer - a trading partner without which it would certainly slide into a deeper recession than it has ever known before? Anyone suggesting that it would be in the interests of the EU to impose tariffs on the UK post Brexit is truly economically stupid. And the suggestion that they would impose a punishment pour encourager les autres is completely missing the point. It could impose such a punishment on countries that have a trade deficit in their own favour compared to the EU (which is pretty much everyone else in the club) since they would have no choice but to accept this in order to maintain their trading position, but we clearly are not in this position. Damaging the UK's trading position would do much more harm to the EZ than it would to the UK and it is simply not going to happen.
The UK has stronger growth than any EZ economy and has created more jobs in the past five years than the whole of the EZ combined. We are not the sick man of Europe economically; Europe and the EZ is the sick man of Europe and we would hold most of the strong cards in any future trade negotiations with the EU. That's just simple economic fact. And what's more we would not be dealing based on the Canadian or Norwegian or Swiss model - we would be making our own deal for the UK based on our uniquely strong position at the centre of European trade.
So there is no threat to our continuing trade relationship with the EU. Outside the club we will continue to be its biggest customer and we will continue to have free, unfettered access to the European market. And that is a key factor in terms of overseas investment in the UK: Are other countries and trading blocs likely to want to invest in a country that has a strong economy, strong financial services, a strong committment to international law (and record of adhering to, rather than flouting those laws), a relatively uncorrupted commercial system in place, is reliable and trustworthy, and which speaks the international business language of English? Or the hotch-potch of economies, regimes, standards and levels of corruption as well as different languages that make up the EU?
It is, quite simply a 'no brainer'.
And are they more likely to want to invest in the UK with a single, simple partnership agreement requiring just the UK to negotiate and approve, and which gives them full access to the European market, or with a group of 27 or 28 countries all of whom have different vested interests and any of whom can throw a spanner in the works of trade negotiations? Romania is currently blocking an EU-wide trade deal with Canada for example - how is that good for the rest of the so-called community?
And outside the EU club we would be able to create our own trade deals with emerging markets around the world without recourse to the EU. Nations and places with whom we already have a much better historical relationship than the EU does. Like India, Canada, Australia, the USA, China, many parts of Africa. And we would be operating on the basis of our famed dynamism and positivity towards global trade instead of the protectionist EU approach which currently sees African farmers being prevented from trading their way into the first world by EU tariffs and trade barriers.
So, in conclusion, there's no real, credible risk to UK trade from Brexit and every reason to believe that we would be much better off pursuing our own trade deals on behalf of the UK rather than trying to take the whole EU bloc with us from inside the EU.
'Better off 'IN' Really?
Keep telling us the big lie if you want to, but that is exactly what it is and I think people are starting to wake up to the fact that those advocating that we 'remain' are doing so mainly for their own vested interests rather than in the interests of the wider nation and its people. Corporations for whom complicated EU red tape makes competition much less likely to arise. Organisation and individuals like Mandelson & Pantsdown who are being bribed by the EU to be advocates. Big banks who benefit from EU protection against risk which means they can gamble as much as they like with other people's money and still reap the rewards. MPs, former MPs and members of our 'establishment' who are in the pay of the EU in one way or another. I include the BBC in this, as well as people like Mandelson whose EU pension is reliant on his promoting the EU at every opportunity. Just remember that next time you see him spouting his pro-EU nonesense.
It's time we woke up to all this and recognised that we are a great trading nation, a great global force for trade and for good and that being subsumed into the lethargic, bumbling, failing EU is not beneficial to us in any way. This great nation has always shaped its own destiny and it's time we did again. Time we believed in our people and stopped relying on the EU to do it for us - because it's clear that they can't deliver as much success for the UK as we can ourselves, even if they wanted to - which they so obviously do not.
Thanks for reading.
How are you defining 'Stronger' Stronger in?
How are you defining 'Safer' Stronger In?
You are spot on about the trade side of the EU In or Out argument. I do not see how we will be hit with massive tariffs if we leave as we import more from the EU than we export to them. If our Government is strong it will simply threaten to retaliate with tariffs on our imports from Europe. Concise & spot-on with your analysis :)
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