OK my optimism is based on where we are. The Brexit debate happened last year and the result was clear. So that debate is largely over as far as I'm concerned; I'm now looking forward and backing the UK.
I find it depressing on a human level when people want everyone else 2 suffer so they can say 'I told you so'
Firstly sovereignty- UK laws will now be made by people who live here, know our issues & we can kick out if they don't deliver what we want.
Second, control of borders does not mean no immigration (I'm an immigrant); it means control & knowing the numbers coming in so we can plan infrastructure provision for everyone, including those who pay 4 it.
Controlling borders is what a proper nation state does. It's fundamental & we've seen the mess Merkel is making of Europe by ignoring perfectly good existing laws on 'Illegals'. It's a disaster 4 Europe.
After that it's trade: Leaving EU is not leaving Europe. (I love Europe btw, have lived & worked there).
We are the EZ's biggest customer in the world. There's a £106.4bn/yr (2015 ONS) trade deficit in their favour. They simply will not mess w' their biggest customer. It's in both sides' interest 2 do a free trade deal and I'm very confident that this will happen. If not we revert to WTO rules which are fine for us too.
Meanwhile we're leaving a declining & protectionist trade bloc, free 2 trade w' whole world on our terms & the world is queueing up 2 do deals with us. As part of the Commonwealth we are at the head of a group that includes about 1/3 of the world's population. And we are able to do deals on our own behalf acting as a sinle nation state not needing the agreement of 27 other nations or, worse, regions like Walloonia - which is ridiculous.
It its also true that 90% of future global economic growth is forecast to come from outside of Europe. An ability to do trade deals on our own behalf, with the growing economies and trade blocs of the world (as a nation which boasts the global number 1 financial, legal and business services sectors and is therefore in fantastic shape to take advantage of this fact) is fundamental to ur future prosperity.
As a nation we have 10 universities in the world's top 30 (the highest EU university is Munch at 34), we have the world's #1 financial centre in London; the top EU financial centre is Frankfurt at #20. We're the 5th biggest economy on the planet, the world's 5th biggest military power and the second most influential nation on earth. Yes the EU is a market of 500m people, but 350m of them don't have two Euros to rub together and we've been bailing them out for decades.
None of the doomsday forecasts of project fear has materialised - mass unemployment, a punishment £30bn budget, a DIY recession, WAR!!
The pound has been over-valued for years; a decline is good for exports, balance of trade & UK jobs.
Finally, for now, we're now good mates with the US who distrust the EU/Germany. Biggest economy in the world.
Finally, finally, you need to understand that while I welcome Brexit, my main concern (for 30 years) is about the EU. I'm anti EU because it has not fulfilled its role to protect weaker European nations from stronger, bullying ones. It has been a disaster for everyone in Europe except Germany. Its policies have directly led to massive youth unemployment in southern Europe.
I genuinely believe (and I have been watching this very closely for 30 years) that the EU is effectively a German take-over of Europe. See next blog. (which was written as a blog rather than a staccato tweet-based piece like this - for which my apologies.
Thanks for reading.
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