Wednesday 31 August 2016

There's no rush to invoke Article 50



After 40-odd years of EU membership we have voted to leave the failing, undemocratic and outdated organisation and despite all the rhetoric from the denialist former Remainers to the contrary, leave is exactly what we will now do.

It may take some time to unpick all the tentacles of the EU that have found their way into the fabric of UK society but essentially, now that the decision has been made - and accepted by our government, and in particular our new Prime Minister - we are now firmly on our way towards a new level of freedom, democracy and a global outlook that has been denied us for decades.

I won't go back over the ridiculous crap spouted by the Remain camp, other than to say that the 'we're too small to have any influence in the world' was the absolute worst load of old bollocks I've ever heard and was, I think, one of the key defining voting influences on the June 23rd Referendum. We have always punched above our weight as a nation - we are resourceful, honest, practical and we think big. We are also loyal partners and we look after our friends and allies. In short we are exactly what most inward investors - be they nations or individuals - are looking for in a partner. We don't renege on agreements and nor do we see the only way of securing a beneficial deal as being that the 'other side' must lose out as part of the process. It's always a mutually beneficial thing.

These qualities cannot be attributed to many other nations and certainly not to the EU.

So now what?

Well it seems to me that now we have a grown up in number 10, things are looking better than ever. I trust Theresa May - yes I know she was on the side of Remain during the referendum but not in a high profile way and she seems to me to be pragmatic and making all the right noises about Brexit so far.

Can you imagine Dave leading our negotiations?

I liked him as a bloke but he was a child promoted way above his capabilities. A terrible negotiator, a figurehead not a leader, a PR man not a visionary,  a crowd pleaser rather than a tough negotiator with the interests of the UK as his main priority.

His approach to these upcoming negotiations would have been to tell the world what he was trying to achieve in advance - so that our 'opponents could decide on their stance and stitch up well in advance - and then, having failed in his quest, he would have tried to tell us that he'd succeeded.

Theresa, on the other hand is keeping her cards close to her chest. She is not pre-judging the outcome of negotiations. She has stated that Brexit must mean Brexit and that negotiations will not officially start before the end of the year, when Article 50 will be invoked. She has also stated that it will be about what's best for the UK going forward and not a half-arsed (my words not hers) compromise approach which frankly would be no good either for the UK or the EU.

So whilst many people who I would consider to be on the same side as me - i.e. Brexiteers - are jumping about calling for Article 50 to be invoked quickly so that the initiative is not lost and so that the Remain camp cannot fudge and curtail what will happen; so that the whole thing cannot be watered down, the fact is that it won't be.



She has made her position clear and not contradicted herself and she is sticking to her guns.And it's more important (than anything in our recent history), to get this right and to make sure we get the best possible outcome from Brexit, than it is to rush the whole thing.

The EU will want to see us suffer, will want us to feel the pain, because it would be a disaster for the EU if Britain prospers and thrives outside, as it will encourage many others in Europe to want to leave. But they don't have the machinery to cause us this pain without causing themselves even greater pain. Which is what they're now slowly starting to realise.

So while Theresa states that 'Brexit will mean Brexit' and then keeps quiet about it, so our former partners in the EU are being allowed the time to wake up and smell the coffee; to slowly realise that we are serious and that they really ought to stop with the threats and other bollocks that they had been spouting during and immediately after the referendum and that actually they need us more than we need them.

Their language has become much more conciliatory, they are now talking about 'special deals' and a good ongoing relationship and while a few are still saying 'we can't let the UK keep the nice things' post Brexit, these people are now very much in the minority and, other than in the denialist media including, in particular the frankly traitorous BBC, they are not gaining any traction.

I'm sure Theresa knows that we can, if needed just walk away. We don't need the EU to grant us any favours. Our economy is strong. We buy more from the EU (to the tune of £106.4 billion in 2015) than they do from us. We have other countries around the world queueing up to do business with us.



On the other hand the EU is in decline, almost in recession. Italy is bankrupt, as is Greece and France is teetering. It has just fucked up (technical economic term) it's trade deal with the US (which was - TTIP - a crap deal but that's not the point I'm making) and is on the brink of failure without us to prop up the whole sorry edifice.

In many ways we might well be better off just walking away from the EU, like a watertight and relatively comfortable lifeboat leaving the Titanic. Of course we'd like to remain friends with our trading partners in Europe - but this will almost certainly be better if it is on the basis of trading with nation states rather than via the clunking machinery of the EU.

I think if the EU doesn't play ball, we should offer deals to Germany, Italy, Spain and Scandinavia (but not France initially) and see what happens. I think they'd be falling over themselves to trade with us.

We should also establish special relationships with Iceland, Norway and Switzerland as well as re-establishing and building on the great relationships we used to have with the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the rest of the Commonwealth.

The fact is we have better relationships on a global scale than any country within the EU and than the EU itself as an organisation. Better relationships with India, China, Russia. Because we have always punched above our weight and, post Brexit, we will not only continue to do so, but we will enhance this position and reputation as a welcome new driving force for trade in the world.

And the EU will continue to bicker and (technical economic term) 'fuck about' while we get on with it.

And as we leave - the only member that has ever actually and consistently played by the rules - the EU will realise that every time it bends and breaks the rules to accommodate economic failures by the likes of Italy, Spain & Portugal earlier this year and for Greece (which should never have been allowed to join the single currency) it stores up massive problems for the future for everyone in the EU and reduces everywhere except Germany to economic and employment chaos. Big problems. Problems that we are no longer responsible for and can simply, now, walk away from.

Go Theresa, we're all firmly behind you. Or at least those of us who understood what was at stake in the referendum are. Those of us who understood the nature of trade and sovereignty and those of us who voted with the interests of the whole nation rather than selfish, short-term interests at heart.

Thank God for us old, thick, racist bigots eh?

Thanks for reading.


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