'A reformed EU'. What does that mean, and how likely is it?

Everyone, politicians of all sides, commentators, economists have been talking for months (years even) about the UK staying within a 'reformed EU'.

But what does this actually mean?

On the face of it, I take it to mean a different EU;  a better EU for the whole of Europe. More democratic, more supportive of smaller member states, more active in securing global trade deals, more about trade and ensuring prosperity for all members.

An umbrella organisation with influence over environmental, employment, health and safety standards, with a remit to create a level trading playing field that is free from corruption and which enables incoming member states, many of whom are mired in corruption, to break those shackles and become truly members of the first world. With free and fair trading societies but without losing the good bits of their 'places' - their history, culture, democratic influence, nation statehood - the very things which make each of these places special with their own identities and a cultural contribution to make to the whole.

Not all, but the vast majority of these things are about bringing new members into the first world. They are not about forcing the UK to have fair laws on health & safety or 'clean beaches': The UK, France, Germany, Scandinavia and the Low Countries are already 'there' in terms of most of these issues, it's largely about bringing up standards in other countries and, along the way, creating Europe-wide standards for every member state.

And, in theory, if this happens then the EU will have created a better, fairer, more equal trading area that will be better for us in the UK and everyone else in Europe. Which is partly why we seem happy to continue to pay £28 million a day (net) towards this ideological goal.

But the EU is doing very few, if any, of these things successfully. Ask any young person in southern Europe how the prosperity thing is going. Ask people who don't have a vested interest in the EU (i.e. are not paid by the EU) how their basket case economies are being helped by being in the Eurozone. And I'm not just talking about Greece here, but also Portugal, Poland, Eire, Spain, Italy, even France. None of these countries is prospering under the yolk of the EU.

So what reforms are we hoping to secure? That the EU will undergo some kind of 'reboot' and get back to its founding principles?

That is not going to happen. Indeed the EU's response to the endless crises that it is directly responsible for, is to go for more integration (cultural, political and financial) which will essentially create even more of the pain that it has been inflicting upon the vast majority of 'ordinary' people in Europe for the past 40 years.

It is now moving headlong towards a single federal state, with its own central government, anthem, flag, army, tax and employment system, retirement laws - a completely integrated single state, based on the German model. Yeah good luck with making Greeks or Spaniards or Italians 'German' in their outlook and behaviours. Let alone the citizens of incoming countries like Albania and potentially Turkey.

This federal, United States of Europe will never happen successfully or fairly in a way which benefits all members states, but the EU is now so bought-in to this federal process - and the Eurocrats have nowhere else to go if this project fails - that their policies and 'direction of travel' is now much more entrenched than it has ever been.

The plan is really about securing and maintaining their own cushy lifestyles and gold-plated pension schemes, as well as doing Germany's bidding - because Germany IS doing very well out of the whole process while everyone else is suffering. And it seems to me that the rest of Europe has become 'expendable'; with democratic processes and the will of the people being ignored - see Italy, Cyprus, Greece, Eire and, just this week, Portugal. And the financial quagmire into which they have all been lured by the 'free money' provided by the EU (Germany), is now being used to achieve their complete subjugation.

So there is simply no prospect of a 'reformed' EU. They have stated their goals and they don't seem to care how many people and countries fail, so long as the EU remains viable as an institution. And the old chestnut about the UK only being able to affect the direction of the EU 'from within' is utterly redundant: (Business for Britain)

And Dave obviously knows this and so, if they'd bother to spend any time thinking about it, does everyone else, including the media. It's just that they don't seem to want to face reality and are carrying on kicking the can down the road in the hope that something will turn up to get the whole place out of the utter mess that it finds itself in. Many, like Ken Clark, Heseltine, Mandelson, Blair, Clegg, etc., are so wedded to the EU via their own pension arrangements, that they're hardly likely to dissent. And the EU pays the BBC £millions a year to be 'on side' so don't expect any 'balanced reporting in line with the BBC's charter' there then.

So this 'campaign to remain in a reformed EU' is simply not credible. The EU is not going to be reformed.

What Dave et al are really talking about then, is a reformed relationship between the EU and the UK. It really is no more ambitious than that. They know there is not the slightest possibility of achieving any real reform of the EU. And actually, from a parochial (technical term approaching) UK point of view, so fucking what?

If these countries' governments are stupid enough to want to hand over all their powers to Germany (via the EU of course, snigger) then what business is that of ours? But we should not be helping Germany, to the tune of £28 million a day, to achieve what will effectively be a full-blown take-over of Europe.

The EU is set on a (federalist) course that we don't support. Except we are supporting it with massive amounts of British taxpayers' money. How mad is that? We could build a fully staffed and equipped NHS hospital every 2 weeks for the same money we're paying into the EU.

And why would anyone even want to try to reform a relationship with someone who has directly opposing views and takes absolutely no notice whatsoever of our concerns and wishes? Particularly when there are no meaningful benefits to our remaining in this dysfunctional relationship

Trade is always the argument isn't it? Would we be shut out by the EU if we were to leave? Would it be more difficult for us to trade in Europe if we were outside the EU?

Well consider this: The UK is the Eurozone's biggest customer in the world. Bigger than China and the US as far as the EU is concerned. Does anyone seriously think that the EU would make trading between itself and its biggest customer more difficult if we were to leave? Our trade deficit with the EZ is £46 billion a year, in their favour.

Making UK trade with the EU more difficult would be like a patient on life support flicking off the power to the machine that's keeping them alive.

And yet, and yet. Dave tells us that he'll be negotiating 'in Britain's interests'. If we leave, the EU will almost certainly be fatally wounded. It would seriously struggle to remain viable. Just think of the crisis that arose when net recipient Greece was in it's 5-yearly melt-down earlier this year. And then multiply that situation by a hundred-fold if the second or third (debatable because France is clearly getting more back than is currently being admitted) biggest contributor were to leave?

So Dave holds all the cards in this negotiating position, but he is reluctant (actually outright refusing) to play them. He's not negotiating in Britain's interests, he's trying to fudge the whole thing so that we stay in the EU for reasons that are bigger than we are being told about. They must be. I follow this very closely and I cannot fathom why Dave is still pro the UK's membership of the EU whether it's reformed or not. It makes no sense whatsoever.

He's selling us out in my opinion, and there is no earthly reason, if one looks at this with our own national interests in mind, for him to do so or to be behaving how he is.

All of which adds up to the fact that there will be no reformed EU and no meaningful reforms to our relationship with it. Which, in turn adds up to the fact that we should leave - on friendly terms of course - but leave nonetheless.

And then we should pay very close attention to the EU ministers/Eurocrats and their attitudes towards the UK once we've left.  Just to see if they are still sneering at us while their utterly unjustifiable livelihoods fall into the dust.

Dave is toast if he carries on with this 'campaign for in' charade much longer. And if he doesn't, in the end, act in the national interests of the people who elected him as Prime Minister, he will go down in history as an enemy of this country's interests.

I don't really care much about that, it's up to him and he currently has every opportunity to do the right thing. What really is important, is that we take what will probably our last chance to leave the EU and retake our leading position in the world as the 5th or 6th largest economy on the planet, and in control of our own destiny instead of having an 8% (and falling as new members join) influence on the planet's only failing trading bloc.

And if you let apathy decide your vote when the referendum comes; if you think we're better off with the status quo, that leaving is not worth the risk; you will be condemning future generations to being ruled by people we - and they - don't elect. And it won't be the status quo. The EU is not standing still, it is pushing inexorably towards a federal state.

If we leave we will be free to take our rightful place in the world and will be able to control our own destiny. We will be governed by people who live locally to us, who understand our issues and, crucially, who we can vote out if they don't deliver what we want them to.

If we stay in, the laws by which you will be forced to live, will be made by people you didn't vote for, can't vote out, and who will almost certainly never have heard of the city, town or village in which you live, let alone understand your issues.

I genuinely cannot understand why anyone in their right mind would want the UK to 'remain' in the EU. Outside we will still be part of Europe, will still be a major trading partner, but it will be on our own terms. That must be worth fighting for - as we did, as a nation, twice in our relatively recent history - and for very similar reasons if one thinks about it.

Thanks for reading.